To say that the public health
and economic crisis brought on by the novel coronavirus pandemic is
generation-defining would be a huge understatement. This type of event, and our
corresponding response, is unprecedented in modern society. Our reaction to it
will have a tremendous effect on society's well-being for many years to come.
In addition, this crisis has forced us to have to
rethink how we do almost everything, not least of which is how we work. With
offices and schools closing around the world, a great many of us have had to
rely on our home internet networks to stay connected to the important things in
our lives, as well as to remain close to those we hold dear.
At first glance, the ability to connect afforded to us
by the internet has been a real lifesaver. But while we have depended on the
internet for some time, we have never relied on it anywhere near as much as we
do now. This begs the question: can the internet handle what's been happening?
Will
the Internet Survive?
In the early days of the COVID crisis, with parents and
children sent home to work and learn, there was great concern that we might
"break" the internet. After all, even before the crisis, many people
felt their home broadband network was not capable of handling all the demands
they were putting on it.
But after the outbreak of the pandemic, there was a lot
of concern about how all this added stress would affect networks around the
country.
However, while the masses may have worried and even
panicked, experts around the country assured us that the
networks delivering broadband connections to our homes were more than capable
of handling the expanded demands we would be putting on them while forced to
work and learn from home.
But is this the reality being experienced by people
around the country? Or is the internet becoming one more casualty in the fight
against this terrible disease?
In an attempt to answer this question, we've been
looking at internet performance during the few months of the coronavirus
lockdowns and comparing them with the previous twelve-month period. First in
the 100 most populated cities in the United States, and now across all 50
states.
Here's what we found:
Internet
in the 50 States Before and During COVID: At a Glance
Before we dive into the details about our study to
really unpack how the internet has been impacted by the COVID pandemic and all
the lockdowns put in place, here's a quick summary of the most important things
we learned while looking at network performance:
Read on to dive deeper into how COVID is impacting
internet speeds around the country.
Why
Study Internet Speeds?
Before going too far into the details of our study, we
wanted to take a moment to discuss why it is we spent so much time
investigating this topic. Of course, curiosity played a role, but there's more
involved.
The internet is undoubtedly one of the most important
utilities we use in our lives, right up there next to electricity and water.
It's how we work, study, communicate, and so much more. Our lives have become
so digital that not having access to a reliable connection will leave a person
at a significant disadvantage.
The COVID crisis has the potential to exacerbate this
disparity by leaving those already underserved by internet providers in even
more of a lurch. And if this turns out to be the case, then this will expose a
dire need in this country, one that many activists and watchdogs have been
discussing for some time: the need to upgrade and improve broadband connections
and provide access to all.
Of course, no matter the results of this study, there
is work to be done on this nation's digital connectivity, but we wanted to find
out what was really going on.
How
We Conducted Our Study
We made use of mLAB NDT Data for Internet Performance. The
value of this database is that it collects the results produced by actual internet
speed tests conducted around the country.
Data is available for the entire world, but we focused
on the states. We chose to look at states as a complement to our study on the
100 largest cities in the US since we felt this gave a better snapshot of what
was a typical experience for people living in different regions of the country.
We decided to look at actual median download
speeds since this reflects the actual connection speeds around the country.
ISPs are famous for advertising high speeds and then putting in the small print
that actual speeds will vary (meaning they will be less). Looking at actual
speeds gives us a much better picture of what's happening around the country in
terms of internet speed.
Median
Internet Speeds Before and During the COVID Quarantine Crisis: Complete Results
Further down, you will be able to access the full list
of all 50 states to see where yours ranks and compare your experience with the
data. To make the data easier to digest and make the trends pop out a bit more,
we've taken small selections of the data and presented it below. Here's what we
found:
Ten US States With the Fastest Median Download Speed
12 months before Covid-19 - (3/1/19-3/1/20)
The only other state that didn't make it onto this list
but that met this definition was Pennsylvania, which had a median download
speed of 25.03 Mbps.
One thing to note is that all of these states, except
New Hampshire, are among the most densely populated states in the country. This
helps explain why these states are experiencing faster connections. Still, we
hypothesized that because of this high density, median download speeds would
probably drop considerably during the COVID lockdowns, which were strictest in
these dense states, as people were forced to work, study, and socialize from
home.
So, we tested this hypothesis, and here's what we
found:
Ten US States With the Fastest Median Download Speed
during Covid-19 lockdowns - (3/1/20-5/20/20)
Interestingly, nine of the ten states with the fastest
median download speeds before COVID also have them during COVID. The only state
to leave the top ten ranking was Virginia, which dropped just one spot and has
experienced download speeds of 39.48 Mbps during the COVID lockdowns.
The only newcomer to this top ten is California, which
has experienced at 61 percent increase during COVID compared to the year
before, bringing its median speed up to 40.32 Mbps and allowing it to move up
from its previous position of 12.
Clearly, our hypothesis that these densely populated
states which experienced good internet before the crisis would see their median
download speeds suffer during these lockdowns has been disproven. And what's
more, all of these states, except Maryland, which saw an increase of just 29
percent, have experienced at least a 40 percent increase, which is anything but
minor.
This gives us reason to think that our initial belief
that the internet is slowing down as a result of all of this added demand is,
in fact, false. It pushes us towards the conclusion that internet performance
is actually increasing, something very few people expected to happen.
Ten US States With the Slowest Median Download Speed
Before Covid-19 lockdowns - (3/1/20-5/20/20)
Clearly, in the states with access to quality internet
connections before the COVID crisis, things have improved considerably even
though there has been a good deal of extra stress placed on our networks.
However, to get a more complete picture, it's necessary
to look at how those who didn't have the same access before the crisis have
fared.
In the year before the COVID lockdowns, these ten
states had the slowest median download speeds:
Of course, there is an explanation for these numbers.
Alaska is the least densely populated state in the US, and this is naturally
going to lead to less connectivity and slower connections. However, that Alaska
is still effectively stuck in the digital dark ages hints at a more significant
problem within the United States when it comes to the variation of internet
speeds - the digital divide between urban and rural populations.
In general, these states are considerably less densely
populated than those that made it into the top ten, but things don't line up
quite that nicely. For example, Hawaii is the 13th most densely populated state
in the Union, Kentucky is 22, Mississippi is 32, Vermont is 33, and Iowa is 36.
The rest, however, are on-trend.
We hypothesized that given these states already have a
less capable internet infrastructure; internet speeds would remain unchanged or
reduce only slightly. This is because these smaller states, theoretically, have
fewer people in them, and that means less stress on the networks, which had us
all concerned during this difficult time.
However, after seeing what happened with the states
where the internet is fastest, we could expect internet speeds to increase even
more than in other areas, mainly because these lagging networks have more
ground to make up, which could contribute to dramatic improvements.
Let's look at the data.
Ten US States With the Slowest Median Download Speed
During COVID-19 lockdowns - (3/1/20-5/20/20)
However, one thing we did learn that we may have been
right about is that this group saw more substantial improvements as a whole
than those that were already experiencing faster internet speeds. The two
states to see the biggest improvements - Alaska and Hawaii - are the only two
states to see their median download speeds double during COVID.
In addition, the median improvement of this group was
58 percent, compared to just 48 percent for the top group. If we switch for a
second and look at averages, this group does even better - these ten improved,
on average, 72 percent, compared to 50 percent for the states with faster
internet.
Yet despite these improvements, all ten of these states
are still experiencing speeds below the threshold defined by the FCC as
broadband. While many more states have made it past this lower limit during
COVID (33 as compared to just 11), many still remain without access to this
basic service, and they tend to be in states that are more rural and less
dense.
Ten US States With the Biggest Improvement in Median
Download Speed during Covid-19 lockdowns - (3/1/20-5/20/20)
Since the ten states that had the slowest internet
before COVID were not the ones to experience the biggest improvements, we
wanted to see which ones were. And here's what we found:
It's reasonable to believe that this has occurred
because these smaller states, which naturally have fewer people connecting to
their networks, were better positioned than larger states to take advantage of
what seems to be a nationwide improvement in internet connectivity. This
allowed them to make significant strides in terms of median download speed
despite the increase in traffic resulting from COVID.
To confirm this, we took a look at the states that saw
the smallest improvements in median download speed during COVID. Here are the
results:
Ten US States With the Smallest Improvement in Median
Download Speed during Covid-19 lockdowns - (3/1/20-5/20/20)
Interestingly, Maryland's poor improvement did not
knock it out of the top ten in terms of median speeds; it moved from 2nd to
6th. It's unclear exactly why this one state, and none of the other top
performers from pre-COVID times, experienced such a small decline.
In general, though, the improvements these states
experienced are considerable, with most enjoying at least a 30 percent bump.
Ten US States With Biggest Slowdown In First Two Weeks
of COVID Lockdowns - (3/16/20-3/31/20)
All of the evidence points to the internet being faster
across the board during the first three months of COVID lockdowns. In many
ways, it goes against everything we might expect; more people working from
home, learning from home, watching movies, videoconferencing, and more, should
lead to slower speeds. But the data simply doesn't tell this story.
We wanted to know if any states experienced a downturn
in median download speeds during the first few weeks of the COVID crisis. When
everyone was sent home almost overnight, networks were put under unexpected
strain.
To do this, we simply looked at the median download
speeds from March 16-March 31 for the fifty states and compared them to the
previous year. Here's what we found:
However, when we pause to think, this makes sense. All
of these states are home to some of the nation's largest cities - NYC, DC,
Chicago, Boston - many of whom put their stay-at-home orders into effect during
these two weeks, suddenly forcing millions of people to work and study from
home.
It appears that these states initially struggled but
then bounced back after the sudden increase, which is right in line with what
we would expect.
However, these eight states (nine if we include
Arizona) do not represent the norm during this period. The median download
speed was 28.25 Mbps, less than 1 Mbps slower than the median during the entire
COVID crisis.
Also, the median improvement was 43 percent, and the
average improvement was 64 percent. Both are more or less in line with what has
been happening during the rest of the COVID crisis. This helps us more firmly
conclude that the internet is not only surviving this crisis but thriving
(comparatively) as it unfolds.
The Full Lists
To find out how your state is doing during this crisis,
and to look for any trends yourself, here's the full list of all 50 states
along with their median download speeds before and during COVID:
Some
Limitations to Our Study
The data we have collected has shown us that although
we may have expected internet speeds to slow down during COVID, this has not
been the case across the board. However, there are some limitations to our
study that should be taken into account:
- Internet infrastructures vary widely within a state.
So, while a state may have experienced an improvement, this could be led by one
high-performing city or area, and the rest of the state could be experiencing
something entirely different. A state-by-state analysis would be needed to
figure out what is happening here.
- More users in the home could be effecting actual
speeds. With so many families now all living, working, and studying under one
roof, it's possible that while your connection is faster overall, you're not
experiencing it because you are using up your bandwidth (the total amount of
data that can travel over your network at any one time.) If this is the case,
you may need to upgrade your bandwidth so that everyone in the home can
experience these improved download speeds.
- The time of day you access the internet matters. If
our data says your state is experiencing an increase in speeds, but you aren't
witnessing this, consider when you use the internet. Peak hours - which used to
be defined as 7pm -12 midnight - have been extended to include the workday
(when people used to rely on the internet at their workplaces). As a result,
while speeds may be higher, you may not be experiencing them because of when
you're trying to access the internet.
Moving
Forward
This study has helped us answer the question: will the
internet survive COVID? And the answer, at least according to our data, is a
resounding yes.
However, we shouldn't take this as a victory. During
COVID, seventeen (17) states still don't have median download speeds that
qualify as broadband, and that's assuming we all agree 25 Mbps is the correct
threshold for this definition. There are many people out there who say it
should be 50 or even 100 Mbps, as these are the speeds truly needed to manage
the digital tasks of today.
Although there have been improvements, there is much
more that needs to be done, and this is even truer when we think about the
different aspects of digital inequality (urban vs. rural, rich vs. poor, etc.).
There is also the question of accountability. We should
be grateful that the internet has been able to handle all of this added stress,
and that ISPs have been able to respond with improved performance, but the
question remains: where was all of this before the crisis?
Americans pay top dollar for their internet
connections, yet it appears that ISPs have, in fact, been holding back network
capabilities. There may be a perfectly good reason for this. For example, ISPs
could be investing more in infrastructure and development than network
performance - but this question needs to be answered if ISPs expect people to
continue to pay the prices set by internet providers.
Time will tell what will happen next. The COVID crisis
appears to be far from over, but schools will soon be out for summer. Perhaps
this will have an even bigger impact on download speeds, or perhaps things will
remain the same. In the end, we simply don't know. But the one thing we can say
is that it's unlikely COVID lockdowns will destroy the internet, and we can all
be thankful for that.